Forecasting 2 economic growth scenarios in 2024

Identifying economic growth from the perspective of speed and quality Quang Ninh sets a target of GRDP growth of more than 10% in 2024

Reporting at the regular Government meeting in March 2024, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.66% over the same period last year, the basic macroeconomic situation The market is stable, inflation is controlled, major balances are guaranteed, economic growth, production and business continue to recover evenly in all three sectors: agriculture, industry and services; The inventory index dropped sharply, FDI attraction reached a high level, and socio-economic activities became more vibrant…

However, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung commented that the difficulties and challenges are still great; There are new factors from both inside and outside the economy, creating pressure on macroeconomic stability, inflation, exchange rates, major balances and management and administration to promote economic growth. chief in the near future.

Forecasting 2 economic growth scenarios in 2024
The Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts that economic growth in 2024 is expected to reach 6-6.5%, meeting the target set by the National Assembly.

All levels, sectors and localities need to continue to consistently and steadfastly implement the set goals, perspectives and development orientations; Make efforts to overcome difficulties and overcome challenges to effectively carry out assigned work.

Based on the results of the first quarter, forecasting the situation in the second quarter and the whole year, the Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts 2 growth scenarios.

Scenario 1: Economic growth for the whole year is expected to reach 6% (close to the target decided by the National Assembly), the last 9 months of the year will increase by about 6.12%, of which, growth in the second quarter is 5.85%, The third and fourth quarters were 6.22% and 6.28% respectively, reaching the lower limit or lower than the scenario set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP.

Scenario 2: Economic growth for the whole year reaches 6.5% (above the target decided by the National Assembly), the last 9 months of the year increase by about 6.75%, of which, growth in the second quarter is 6.32%, The third and fourth quarters were 6.79% and 7.08%, respectively. Quarterly growth is about 0.1% higher than the upper-bound scenario proposed in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment recommends choosing scenario 2, which means GDP in 2024 will increase by 6.5%. But this growth comes with the condition that the world and domestic situations change favorably, and new fiscal and monetary support policies are implemented synchronously.

To achieve socio-economic goals this year, according to the Minister of Planning and Investment, it is necessary to focus on developing and promulgating documents guiding the implementation of the Land Law, the Law on Credit Institutions, and the Law on Economy. real estate business, Housing Law… to submit to the National Assembly for permission to implement half a year earlier, in July.

“Localities review documents under their jurisdiction to be able to apply the Land Law as soon as it takes effect, especially in developing land price lists,” Minister Dung said.

Continue to synchronously and drastically implement solutions and policies to support production and business, create jobs and livelihoods for people.

Ensuring the requirements and progress of implementing the new salary regime from July 1, 2024 in accordance with the policies of the Party Central Committee and resolutions of the National Assembly.

Continue to strongly promote and renew growth drivers in investment, consumption and export; Maximize the exploitation of new growth drivers from digital transformation, green transformation…

Along with that, we need to urgently concretize and effectively exploit international treaties and agreements of senior leaders; Research and advise on new, comprehensive and breakthrough mechanisms, policies and solutions to maximize new opportunities, opportunities and advantages for growth and development;

Promote improvement of mechanisms, policies, laws, administrative reform, and reduction of administrative procedures. Maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, and ensure major balances of the economy.

At the same time, focus on doing well social security, cultural development, education, health care, and environmental protection. Firmly ensure national defense, security, social order and safety. Strengthen international integration deeply, substantially and effectively. Enhance information and propaganda…

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